07 January 2009

The Europop2010 (Eurostat Population Projections 2010-based) convergence scenario contains statistical information on population projections at national level, namely:

- projected 1^st January population by sex and 5-year age group, by 5-year time interval,

- assumptions on total fertility rates (TFR), life expectancy at birth by sex and net international migration.

Data comprise the EU27 Member States and the EFTA countries.

More detailed data from Europop2010 can be available upon request.

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The methodology of the Eurostat population projections is based on the main assumption that socio-economic differences between Member States of the European Union and countries of European Free Trade Association will fade out in the very long run. Values of major demographic indicators are thus set such to converge across countries in the very long run. 

 These major demographic indicators are:

• Total fertility rate: the mean number of children that would be born alive by a woman during her lifetime if she were to pass through her childbearing years conforming to the fertility rates by age of a given year.
• Life expectancy at birth: the mean number of years that a newborn child is expected to live if subjected throughout his or her life to the current mortality conditions.
• Net migration: the difference between the number of immigrants and the number of emigrants.

Europop2010 data are purely projections and therefore they should not be intended as population forecasts. They only portray a demographic future which could occur if certain conditions, as expressed by the assumptions on the major demographic indicators, will hold. In particular, Europop2010 is developed upon a long-term vision and it does not aim to exactly predict short-term populations sizes.

Data are classified by:

• Geopolitical entity: European Union Member States, European Free Trade Association countries
• Age class: 5-year age group, open age group 85 max
• Sex: Total, Males, Females

Persons

1^st January population at national level

EU Member States, European Free Trade Association countries

Population: from 1^st January 2010 to 1^st January 2061.

Assumptions: from 2010 to 2060.

1^st January 2010

Persons for tables on populations and net migration, live births per woman for total fertility rates, years of life for life expectancies at birth.

As time coverage.

Population projections are produced by Eurostat in the framework of the invitation of the Council (ECOFIN) to the Economic Policy Committee to update its analysis of the economic and budgetary implications of ageing.

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No official release calendar

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In line with the Community legal framework and the European Statistics Code of Practice Eurostat disseminates European statistics on Eurostat's website (see item 10 - 'Dissemination format') respecting professional independence and in an objective, professional and transparent manner in which all users are treated equitably. The detailed arrangements are governed by the Eurostat protocol on impartial access to Eurostat data for users.

Population projections are produced by Eurostat approximately every 3 years.

News releases on-line

Methodologies and Working Paper, Statistics in Focus (forthcoming)

Please consult free data on-line or refer to contact details.

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Internet address: http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat

Eurostat Methodologies and Working Paper (forthcoming).

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Full comparability. Projections are produced by Eurostat for each country based on common methodology.

Full comparability within the reference period covered by this projections exercise.

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Data as reported by countries within the demographic and migration data collections.

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EU27 aggregate is an aggregate of the population of the 27 Member States.

EFTA aggregate is an aggregate of the population of the 4 Member States.

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More detailed data from Europop2010 can be available upon request.