13 November 2009

The tables presented here refer to the regional (NUTS level 2/2006) population data (1st January), by sex and single year of age, regional vital events (births, deaths), international and interregional migration in the EU 27 Member States (for which NUTS level 2 breakdown exists), Norway and Switzerland.

NUTS level 2 (version 2006).

The regional breakdown of the EU Member States is based on the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS).

Population: Regional population on 1st January for the respective years by sex and single year of age (0 to 80+)

Period of time: from 2008 until 2031

Geopolitical entity: NUTS level 2 (version 2006) and statistical regions for Norway and Switzerland.

Events refer to vital events (births, deaths), international migration and internal migration between the regions of the same country.

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Data refers to 1st January regional (NUTS level 2/2006) population by sex and single year of age and demographic events by region.

European Union:
EU Member States which have a breakdown at NUTS level 2. Data for France refer to FX (metropolitan France).

EFTA countries:
Norway and Switzerland.

From 1 January 2008 to 1 January 2031

Jump-off population: 1st of January 2008

Number of persons, number of events.

Population: Annual data - 1st of January 2008 - 1st of January 2031

Demographic events: Annual data - 2008 - 2030

Eurostat annual Statistical Programme 2009

Regulation (EC) No 223/2009 on European statistics (recital 24 and Article 20(4)) of 11 March 2009 (OJ L 87, p. 164), stipulates the need to establish common principles and guidelines ensuring the confidentiality of data used for the production of European statistics and the access to those confidential data with due account for technical developments and the requirements of users in a democratic society.

No official release calendar

In line with the Community legal framework and the European Statistics Code of Practice Eurostat disseminates European statistics on Eurostat's website (see item 10 - 'Dissemination format') respecting professional independence and in an objective, professional and transparent manner in which all users are treated equitably. The detailed arrangements are governed by the Eurostat protocol on impartial access to Eurostat data for users.

Population projections are produced by Eurostat every 3-4 years

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Statistics in Focus (forthcoming December 2009)

Please consult free data on-line or refer to contact details.

Population projections are 'what-if' scenarios that aim to provide information about the likely future size and structure of the population. As with Eurostat population projections at national level, EUROPOP2008 regional population projections present one of several possible population change scenarios at NUTS level 2 based on assumptions for fertility, mortality and migration for the period 2008-2030. The current regional scenario complements the demographic profile suggested by population projections produced by other statistical institutes or other international organisations, which draw alternative paths for the possible evolution of the population.

The projections have been compiled using the standard demographic cohort-component model. The country specific input parameters (EUROPOP2008 at national level; for information on the Eurostat 2008-based population projections at national level, see Statistics in Focus Ageing characterises the demographic perspectives of the European societies, 72/2008.) that were used for the national population projections (Age Specific Fertility Rates, Age Specific Death Rates and Migration) become region-specific for the respective regions. Additionally, the regional variation in demographic behaviour is quantified for the period 2008-2030.

For fertility and mortality the regional variation from the national overall fertility and mortality is expressed using the indirect standardisation method (standardised ratio). First, the national fertility and mortality age- and sex-specific rates are applied to the regional population, yielding a hypothetical number of events; then the observed number of regional events is divided by this hypothetical number to obtain a regional scaling factor. The regional scaling factors thus obtained represent an estimate of the extent to which regional fertility and mortality are above or below the national overall fertility and mortality.

For international migration, scaling factors were calculated as the ratio of the regional crude migration rate to the national crude migration rate. This indicator also equals the ratio of the share of the regional net migration in the total country net migration and of the regional population in the total population.

For fertility, the regional scaling factors have been relatively stable in recent years. Regional differences from the respective national figure (at national level standardised ratio by definition equals to 1) are, for the vast majority of regions, in the range of ±20% for the years that have been used to calculate the regional scaling factors. Similarly, for mortality, the regional scaling factors for males and females have also been relatively stable in recent years. On the whole, regional mortality differences have been smaller than the corresponding fertility differences. For the projections, therefore, the regional scaling factors have initially been set to the average value in recent years.

International migration has been estimated as a residual of the demographic balance and it therefore includes all imperfections which might affect the other components of the equation. In order to calculate the necessary information for Greece, Portugal and Ireland, the data on international migration for these countries were indirectly derived from the internal migration data from the last census. For France data for internal migration were available as an average for the period 2004-2008. This might have affected the results for the regions of these countries. The base year (starting year i.e. 2008) regional scaling factors have been set to the average over recent years where data were available.

Consequently, assumptions have to be made concerning the degree to which the scaling factors will change over the projection period 2008-2030. Specifically, the difference between the national and the regional scaling factor is assumed to decline by a quarter by 2030. For instance, where a region's scaling factor for a component is 0.80 (meaning that it is 20% below the national level, which by definition equals to 1) this will be 0.85 at the end of the projection period.

The scaling factors for each year between the base year and the target year have been obtained by linear interpolation.

In addition to the above assumptions on fertility, mortality and international migration, assumptions were made about inter-regional migration.

The age and sex-specific rates of inter-regional migration were estimated by means of a model that uses as an input the inter-NUTS level 2 departures and arrivals by age, sex and region, and the total number of inter- NUTS level 2 migrations by region of origin and region of destination (origin-destination migration matrix).

Assumptions were made about national residential mobility and the degree of attractiveness of the regions; therefore, assumptions were made about internal mobility as a whole (intra- plus inter-regional moves) plus the convergence/divergence of the regions in terms of attractiveness (full convergence would signify that net inter-regional migration is zero). In the current regional EUROPOP2008 population projections, internal mobility and regional differences are assumed not to change from the recent situation (calculated as an average of internal migration flows in recent years depending on countries' data availability). The assumptions are quantified in the origin-destination migration matrix. Using a specific model, these assumptions on internal mobility and attractiveness are ultimately translated into inter-regional migration rates.

The age structures for fertility, mortality and international migration at regional level are assumed to be identical to those at national level, while for inter-regional migration they are derived from the model and are region-specific.

The Eurostat regional population projections are fully consistent  with the Eurostat national projections, in terms of both the input (rates) and, with the application of specific consistency algorithms, the output (events) side. Therefore, the regional assumptions and results are linked to the assumptions and national results of EUROPOP2008.

Specifically, in order to ensure consistency between the national and the regional EUROPOP2008, the regional projection model checks for each type of event (births, deaths, and international migration), whether the regional numbers add up to the national number from the national EUROPOP2008. If not, the regional numbers of events are proportionally adjusted in line with the national level. Consistency between regional and national scenarios is thus achieved both on the input side (equivalent rates) and on the output side (equivalent numbers of events).

Specific methodological remarks:

- It should be noted that in principle, the period 2003-2007 was used; however, the exact number of years may differ between components and countries, depending on data availability.

- The base year is 2008 and eventual revisions of the population for the jump-off year have not been incorporated in the current version of the regional population projections in order to keep consistency to the EUROPOP2008 national population projections.

- EUROPOP2008 at national level: For information on the 2008-based population projections at national level refer to Eurostat publication, Statistics in Focus titled "Ageing characterises the demographic perspectives of the European societies", 72/2008.

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In 2010, The Commission (Directorate General for Regional Policy) will publish the Fifth Report on Economic and Social Cohesion. The Report will provide, firstly, an update on the situation and an outlook with regard to economic, social and territorial cohesion and, secondly, an analysis of the impact of policy at national and Community level on cohesion in the Union.

Part of the Report will be dedicated to the current demographic developments of the European Union regions and the possible future demographic challenges. The EUROPOP2008 regional population projections intend to complement the demographic picture of the regions in the European Union and contribute to the information that will be used.

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Data from Eurostat's Migration and Demographic databases are used in order to estimate the necessary quantitative input for the population projections.

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