07 January 2009

EUROPOP2008 (EUROpean POpulation Projections, base year 2008) convergence scenario contains statistical information on population projections with reference to:

- projected 1^st January population by sex and single year of age,

- projected vital events (births and deaths) and

- assumptions concerning Total Fertility Rate (TFR), life expectancy at birth by sex and international migration

Data comprise the EU27 Member States, Norway and Switzerland.

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The methodology has been developed based on the assumption that the socio-economic and cultural differences between the Member States of the European Union (EU), Norway and  Switzerland will fade out in the very long run (for example, next century). If the narrowing of differences concerns the demographic drivers, then this assumption implies a convergence of demographic values. The particular convergence year (e.g. 2150) characterises the variants respectively (2150 variant).

In the EUROPOP2008 convergence scenario, produced by Eurostat, the population projections describe the possible future demographic developments assuming that across countries fertility and mortality converge to the "forerunners". Concerning international migration, it is assumed that migration flows will converge to zero net migration in the same convergence year with the one assumed for fertility and mortality. Additionally, migration is adjusted upwards if the working age population, taking already into account the whole converging migration, presents a deficit for the respective years.

Since Norway and Switzerland are included in the current EUROPOP2008, convergence scenario, the same concepts have been applied for those countries as well.

The methodology consists essentially of setting the values of the demographic indicators for the convergence year (e.g. 2150), i.e. the year in which the theoretical convergence would be achieved, and of appropriately interpolating from the starting value for each country and each demographic component (fertility, mortality). The national values for the year of interest (target year, 2060) are thus derived. 

The indicators presented could be defined as follows:

• Population refers to 1^st January population for the respective years in the period 2008-2061.
• Total Fertility Rate: The mean number of children that would be born alive to a woman during her lifetime if she were to pass through her childbearing years conforming to the fertility rates by age of a given year.
• Life expectancy at birth: The mean number of years that a newborn child is expected to live if subjected throughout his or her life to the current mortality conditions.
• Demographic events: Births, Deaths

Data are classified by:

• Geopolitical entity: European Union Member States, Norway and Switzerland
• Age class: Single year of age, open age group 80 max
• Sex: Total, Males, Females

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Data refers to 1st January population by sex and single year of age at national level.

EU27 Member States, Norway and Switzerland  

Population : From 1st January 2008 to 1^st January 2061

Assumptions and demographic events: 2008 - 2060

1^st January 2008

Population: Annual data - 1st of January 2008 - 1st of January 2061

Demographic events: Annual data - 2008 - 2060

The compilation of population projections is based on the Council's decision to invite the Economic Policy  Committee (EPC) to update and further deepen its common projection exercise of age-related expenditure projections by the autumn of 2009 on the basis of a new population projection to be provided by Eurostat (2707th Economic and Financial Affairs Council meeting - Brussels, 14 February 2006, 14/2/2006 ( English ) - Press:37 Nr: 6052/06)

Regulation (EC) No 223/2009 on European statistics (recital 24 and Article 20(4)) of 11 March 2009 (OJ L 87, p. 164), stipulates the need to establish common principles and guidelines ensuring the confidentiality of data used for the production of European statistics and the access to those confidential data with due account for technical developments and the requirements of users in a democratic society.

No official release calendar

In line with the Community legal framework and the European Statistics Code of Practice Eurostat disseminates European statistics on Eurostat's website (see item 10 - 'Dissemination format') respecting professional independence and in an objective, professional and transparent manner in which all users are treated equitably. The detailed arrangements are governed by the Eurostat protocol on impartial access to Eurostat data for users.

Population projections are produced by Eurostat every 3-4 years.

Methodologies and working papers (forthcoming methodological document on EUROPOP2008 convergence scenario) Statistics in Focus

Please consult free data on-line or refer to contact details.

The types of sources used for the purposes of EUROPOP2008are Eurostat's Migration and Demographic databases.

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Eurostat's Migration and Demographic databases

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EU27 aggregate is an aggregate of the population of the 27 Member States.

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Differences may be observed when the demographic equation is applied (Population[T+1] = Population[T] + Births[T] - Deaths[T] + Net International Migration[T]) due to rounding of births,  deaths and international migration.