The colloquium will cover both theoretical and empirical issues related to business cycle analysis and forecasting. Theoretical and innovative content, pertinent and conclusive empirical study focusing preferably on the euro area or European countries' behaviour, as well as on the interaction between European and non-European economies.
Methodological studies are particularly welcome, especially when the proposed approach has potential empirical applications.
Papers are solicited in the following areas:
| Relationship between statistical methods and business cycle theory | - Real business cycle and long-run constraint
- Alternative generating processes for trend and cycle and their economic
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| Multivariate estimation of permanent and transitory components | - Bayesian approach to the estimation of trend and cycle
- A generalisation of the trend and cycle decomposition approach
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| Estimation of potential output and output gap | - Multivariate estimation of potential output
- NAIRU estimation
- Real-time evaluation
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| Dating, detecting and forecasting turning points | - Univariate versus multivariate methods
- Growth cycle and classical cycle
- Building and updating a cycle chronology
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| Growth and cyclical convergence | - Common features
- Distance measures
- Classification of trend and cycles
- Convergence and synchronisation measures
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| Transmission of cyclical fluctuations | - Multi-country and multi-sectoral models
- Empirical investigation of transmission mechanism
- Presence of common cycles among sectors and countries
- Leading and lagging structures for countries and sectors
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| Forecasting methods for economic activity and business cycle movements | - Linear vs. non-linear forecasting
- Combining forecasting techniques
- Evaluation of competitive forecasts
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| Construction of coincident and leading indicators | - Methods for indicator selection
- Real-time evaluation of coincident and leading indicators
- Nowcasting the economic conditions
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| Evaluation of competitive forecasts | |
| The role of Principal European Economic Indicators (PEEIs) in business cycle analysis and forecasting for the euro area and the European Union | |
