Quarterly national accounts - third GDP estimate

From Statistics Explained

Data from 30 June 2014. Most recent data: Further Eurostat information, Main tables and Database.

This article presents key messages and data extractions based on Eurostat's third estimation of quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of 2014 in the European Union (EU-28) and euro area (EA-18) released on 2nd July 2014.

Eurostat's third regular GDP estimation is done approximately 100 days (t+100) after the end of each quarter. Earlier estimates of GDP growth in each quarter are compiled at about t+45 days (GDP flash) and t+65 days (second GDP release, including breakdowns by expenditure components and gross value added by industries). Additional aggregates are published with the first estimate of employment data (t+75). While these estimations are presented in dedicated press releases,the third estimate consists mainly in a comprehensive database update.

This article updates information from the second press release where necessary and presents Member States data in addition to the respective European Union (EU) and euro area aggregates in an attached Excel sheet (see below, Other information).

Figure 1: EU-28, EA-18 and US GDP growth rates 2014Q1 - Source: Eurostat (namq_gdp_k)
Figure 2: EU-28, EA-18 and MS GDP growth rates 2014Q1 - Source: Eurostat (namq_gdp_k)
Table 1: Growth rates of GDP in volume (based on seasonally adjusted data) 2014Q1 - Source: Eurostat (namq_gdp_k)

Main statistical findings

Euro area and European Union

Euro area GDP up by 0.2 % and EU-28 GDP up by 0.3 %

GDP rose by 0.2 % in the euro area (EA-18) and by 0.3 % in the EU-28 during the first quarter of 2014, compared with the previous quarter, according to third estimates (see Data sources and availability) published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the fourth quarter of 2013, growth rates were 0.3 % and 0.4 % respectively.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.9 % in the euro area and grew by 1.4 % in the EU-28 in the first quarter of 2014, after +0.5 % and +1.1 % respectively in the previous quarter.

During the first quarter of 2014, GDP in the United States fell by 0.7 % compared with the previous quarter (after +0.7 % in the fourth quarter of 2013). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP rose by 1.5 % (after +2.6 % in the previous quarter).

GDP growth by Member States 

Among Member States for which data are available for the first quarter of 2014, Hungary and Poland (both +1.1 %) and Malta (+0.9 %) recorded the highest growth compared with the previous quarter, while the Netherlands[1] (-1.4 %) and Estonia Cyprus (both -0.7%) registered the biggest decreases.

GDP components and contributions to growth

During the first quarter of 2014, household final consumption expenditure (NPISH included) rose by 0.2 % in the euro area and by 0.4 % in the EU-28 (after +0.1 % in the previous quarter). Gross fixed capital formation increased by 0.2 % in the euro area and by 0.5 % in the EU-28 (after +0.9 % in the euro area and +1.1 % in the EU-28). Exports rose by 0.2 % in the euro area and 0.4 % in the EU-28 (after +1.4 %). Imports increased by 0.8 % in the euro area and by 1.2 % in the EU-28 (after +0.6 % and +0.4 %).

The contribution of household final consumption expenditure was positive to GDP growth in both, the euro area and the EU-28 (+0.1 and +0.2 percentage points respectively). The contribution of gross fixed capital formation was neutral in the euro area and positive in the EU-28(+0.1 percentage points), as well as the change in inventories (+0.2 percentage points in both zones). The contribution of the external balance was negative (-0.2 in the euro area and -0.3 in EU-28).

Data sources and availability

European quarterly national accounts are compiled in accordance with the European system of national and regional accounts 1995 (ESA 95).

With third estimates, euro area and EU-28 figures are subject to revision for all quarters for variables and updated in the Eurostat database. The data in the excel sheet below were extracted for the release on 30. June 2014. It should however be noted that Member States' data are regularly updated in the database. The flash estimate of GDP growth in the second quarter of 2014 is scheduled for 14. August 2014 and the next regular estimates of European aggregates are due on 3. September 2014 (second GDP estimate) and 12. September 2014 (employment estimate). After that, the next estimation of European aggregates is planned in mid-October, based on ESA 2010 methodology.

Pre-announcement

In line with the worldwide guidelines on national accounting, EU National Accounts data, which includes GDP, will be published based on a new methodology (ESA2010) from Autumn 2014 onwards. See here for more details. It should be noted that many Member States will also use this opportunity to carry out major revisions or make other methodological improvements in the compilation of their data.

Context

Quarterly figures on the evolution of gross domestic product (GDP) and its main aggregates are among the most significant indicators of the state of any economy, be it at a national or European level, and of key interest to users. Typical users of quarterly national accounts (QNA) figures are market analysts, forecasters or economic and monetary policy advisors interested in assessing the state of the current business cycle.

See also

Further Eurostat information

Publications

Main tables

Annual national accounts (t_nama)
Quarterly national accounts (t_namq)

Database

Annual national accounts (nama)
Quarterly national accounts (namq)

Dedicated section

Methodology / Metadata

Other information

External links

Notes

  1. Statistics Netherlands published the first estimate of economic growth on 15 May 2014: -1.4 percent. According to the ESA 2010 based second estimate published on 25 June 2014, the negative growth is smaller than previously published (-0.6 %). Further explanations can be found on the CBS website
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