Quarterly national accounts - third GDP estimate

From Statistics Explained

Data from 5 September 2014. Most recent data: Further Eurostat information, Main tables and Database.

This is the last article on GDP data to be based on ESA95. Exceptionally, the data in this article is fully based on the second press release that took place on 5 September 2014. The first estimation of ESA2010 based European main GDP aggregates is scheduled for 17 October 2014.

This article presents key messages and data extractions based on Eurostat's second estimation of quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) for the second quarter of 2014 in the European Union (EU-28) and euro area (EA-18) released on 5 September 2014.

Due to the transition to ESA 2010, Eurostat's third regular GDP estimation, which was usually done approximately 100 days (t+100) after the end of each quarter, is not produced for the second quarter of 2014.

Instead, the first estimation of ESA 2010 based main GDP aggregates is scheduled for 17 October 2014. While the press release foreseen on this occasion will focus on annual national accounts data, and the impact of ESA 2010 on GDP due to methodological changes and additional statistical changes, a first estimation of ESA 2010 based quarterly national accounts up to the second quarter of 2014 will also be performed and presented in a statistics explained article.

After this, regular press releases, on European GDP growth in each quarter will be compiled at about t+45 days (GDP flash) and t+65 days (second GDP release, including breakdowns by expenditure components and gross value added by industries). Additional aggregates are published with the first estimate of employment data (t+75). A third release is currently not foreseen since the transmission deadline for quarterly national accounts is t+2 months under ESA 2010, so that data coverage for the second GDP release should already be nearly complete (except for temporary derogations).

Figure 1: EU-28, EA-18 and US GDP growth rates 2014Q2 - Source: Eurostat (namq_gdp_k)
Figure 2: EU-28, EA-18 and MS GDP growth rates 2014Q2 - Source: Eurostat (namq_gdp_k)
Table 1: Growth rates of GDP in volume (based on seasonally adjusted data) 2014Q2 - Source: Eurostat (namq_gdp_k)

Main statistical findings

Euro area and European Union

Euro area GDP stable and EU-28 GDP up by 0.2 %

GDP remained stable in the euro area (EA-18) and rose by 0.2 % in the EU-28 during the second quarter of 2014, compared with the previous quarter, according to third estimates (see Data sources and availability) published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the first quarter of 2014, growth rates were 0.2 % and 0.3 % respectively.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.7 % in the euro area and grew by 1.2 % in the EU-28 in the second quarter of 2014, after +1.0 % and +1.4 % respectively in the previous quarter.

During the second quarter of 2014, GDP in the United States increased by 1.0 % compared with the previous quarter (after -0.5 % in the first quarter of 2014). Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, GDP rose by 2.5 % (after +1.9 % in the previous quarter).

GDP growth by Member States 

Among Member States for which data are available for the second quarter of 2014, Malta (+1.3 %), Latvia and Slovenia (both +1.0 %), Lithuania, Hungary and the United Kingdom (all +0.8 %) recorded the highest growth compared with the previous quarter, while Romania (-1.0 %), Denmark and Cyprus (both -0.3 %), Germany and Italy (both -0.2 %) registered the biggest decreases.

GDP components and contributions to growth

During the second quarter of 2014, household final consumption expenditure (NPISH included) rose by 0.3 % in the euro area and by 0.4 % in the EU-28 (after +0.2 % and +0.4 % respectively in the previous quarter). Gross fixed capital formation decreased by 0.3 % in the euro area and by 0.1 % in the EU-28 (after +0.2 % in the euro area and +0.5 % in the EU-28). Exports rose by 0.5 % in the euro area and 0.3 % in the EU-28 (after +0.1 % and 0.5 %). Imports increased by 0.3 % in the euro area and by 0.4 % in the EU-28 (after +0.8 % and +1.2 %).

The contribution of household final consumption expenditure was positive to GDP growth in both, the euro area and the EU-28 (+0.2 percentage points). The contribution of gross fixed capital formation was negative in the euro area (-0.1 pp) and neutral in the EU-28(0.0 pp). The change in inventories was negative (-0.2 pp in the euro area and -0.1 pp in the EU-28). The contribution of the external balance was positive (+0.1 pp) in the euro area and with no influence (0.0 pp) in the EU-28.

Data sources and availability

This is the last estimation of European aggregates compiled in accordance with the European system of national and regional accounts 1995 (ESA 95). While Member State data based on ESA 95 have been used as much as possible, particularities due to the transition to ESA 2010 are explained under Latest news on the website. ESA 95 data for the last quarter are not published for several Member States, who adopted ESA 2010 nationally already before September 2014 and/or send ESA 95 estimates for internal use in the estimations only.

From September 2014 onwards, data have to be submitted based on the updated standard, ESA 2010. See here for more details. It should be noted that many Member States will also use this opportunity to carry out major revisions or make other methodological improvements in the compilation of their data. Data received from Member States are are regularly updated in the database. A new dedicated section for ESA 2010 data has been created and dissemination of main GDP aggregates started in the first week of September. The number of countries and tables presented is still limited but will increase over the following weeks as more countries transmit their data. Additional information on the dissemination of ESA 2010 data is available under latest news on the dedicated website and in the database section National accounts (ESA 2010) (na10)

European aggregates are revised at specific release dates. The first estimation of ESA 2010 Euro area and EU-28 annual and quarterly main aggregates is scheduled for 17 October 2014. The flash estimate of GDP growth in the third quarter of 2014 is scheduled for 14 August 2014 and the next regular estimates of European aggregates are due on 5 December 2014 (second GDP estimate) and 12 December 2014 (employment estimate).

Context

Quarterly figures on the evolution of gross domestic product (GDP) and its main aggregates are among the most significant indicators of the state of any economy, be it at a national or European level, and of key interest to users. Typical users of quarterly national accounts (QNA) figures are market analysts, forecasters or economic and monetary policy advisors interested in assessing the state of the current business cycle.

See also

Further Eurostat information

Publications

Main tables

Annual national accounts (t_nama)
Quarterly national accounts (t_namq)

Database

Annual national accounts (nama)
Quarterly national accounts (namq)

Dedicated section

Methodology / Metadata

Other information

External links

Views