Regional population projections

From Statistics Explained

Jump to: navigation, search
Data from November 2009

This article, based on the publication Regional population projections EUROPOP2008: Most EU regions face older population profile in 2030, contains an analysis of the regional population projections EUROPOP2008 - Regional level produced by Eurostat, which complemented the demographic profile offered by Eurostat's population projections EUROPOP2008 - National level; its content is based on information available as of November 2009.

Please note that new population projections EUROPOP2010 - National level have been released (see Eurostat's news release of 8 June 2011 and the publication 'The greying of baby boomers'). Updated corresponding regional population projections are not available.

Map 1: Relative population change between 2008 and 2030, by NUTS 2 regions
Figure 1: Number of regions with decreased, increased population between 2008 and 2030 (see list of country codes)
Figure 2: Range of the regions' relative population change between 2008 and 2030
Table 1 : Population growth components for the period 2008-2030 (number of regions)
Table 2 :Population growth components in 2030 (number of regions)
Figure 3:The ten regions with the highest, lowest median age in 2030 and 2008
Figure 4:NUTS level 2 regions with the highest, lowest proportion of people aged 65+ in the total population in 2030
Map 2: Old age dependency ratio by NUTS 2 regions, 2030

Eurostat's regional population projections covered the 281 NUTS level 2 regions of the 27 European Union (EU) Member States as well as Norway and Switzerland for the period 2008-2030.

Population projections are ‘what-if’ scenarios about the likely future size and structure of populations, based on assumptions for fertility, mortality and migration.

Contents

Main statistical findings

Highlights

  • The 2008-based regional population projections EUROPOP2008 show that population may increase in two out of three regions between 2008 and 2030.
  • However, in 2030, slightly more than half of the regions are projected to continue to increase their population.
  • The median age of the regions’ population in 2030 is projected to be between 34.2 years and 57.0 years, while in 2008 the range was between 32.9 years and 47.8 years.
  • Similarly, in 2030, the share of the population aged 65 years or over is expected to range between 10.4 % and 37.3 %. In 2008, the range was between 9.1 % and 26.8 %.

A majority of the European regions are projected to have a larger population in 2030

While the total EU population is projected to rise by 5 % between 2008 and 2030, there is considerable variation between the 281 regions in the Member States, Norway and Switzerland.

In fact, as shown in Figure 1, population may increase in Cyprus, Luxembourg and Malta and in all regions in Belgium, Denmark, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Norway and Switzerland by 2030. Similarly, the most heavily populated regions of Austria, the Czech Republic, Spain, Finland, France, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Sweden and Slovenia are projected to increase in population over the period.

Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and the majority of regions in Bulgaria, Romania, Germany, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia, however, are expected to have a lower population by 2030.

Figure 2 shows the range of the regions’ relative population change between 2008 and 2030 for each country. Additionally, the bars between the highest and lowest values illustrate the national figure.

Different shading is used for the range above and below the countries’ relative population change. For example, in the Czech Republic, the regions of Moravskoslezsko and Střední Čechy are projected to have a relative population change of -8.0 % and +19.0 % respectively, while the national figure is +0.7 %.

The regions with the highest population increase, more than 30 % over the period 2008-2030 are the two regions in Ireland (the Border, Midland and Western region; and the Southern and Eastern region); the two Spanish coastal regions bordering the Mediterranean – the Región de Murcia and the Comunidad Valenciana; the Algarve in the southern part of Portugal; Cyprus; and the capital city region of Oslo og Akershus in Norway.

The regions with a projected population decrease of more than 20 % are Severozapaden in Bulgaria and Chemnitz, Sachsen-Anhalt, Dresden and Thüringen in Germany.

Migration sustains population growth over the period 2008 - 2030

Population growth is the result of two components: (N) natural change (births minus deaths) and (M) total net migration (international and internal migration). Regions can be divided into six groups according to the results of combining natural change and migration.

  • Regions with positive population growth
  • N+, M+: Positive natural change and positive net migration
  • N- < M+: Negative natural change and positive net migration; migration compensates for the negative natural change
  • N+ > M-: Positive natural change and negative net migration; natural increase compensates for the negative migration
  • Regions with negative population growth
  • N-,M-: Negative natural change and negative net migration
  • N- > M+: Negative natural change and positive net migration; migration does not compensate for the negative natural change
  • N+ < M-: Positive natural change and negative net migration; natural increase does not compensate for the negative migration.

Below, we discuss the population growth components first for the whole period 2008-2030 (Table 1) and then for the year 2030 (Table 2).

Table 1 shows the number of NUTS 2 regions for each country in each of the six groups over the whole projection period, taking into account the cumulative births and deaths and the total net migration over the period 2008-2030.

Table 2 shows the effects of the natural change and the total net migration on the positive or negative population growth in 2030. It presents the number of the NUTS 2 regions in each country only for the last year of the projection period, taking into account the natural change and the total net migration in 2030.

For example, while Table 1 shows eight Austrian regions increasing in population and one decreasing over the period 2008-2030, in Table 2 only five Austrian regions are projected still to have a growing population in 2030 and hence on a trajectory of positive population growth.

As shown in Table 1, for the majority of the regions projected to have positive growth over the period 2008-2030 (the three first groups), positive migration is an important factor, either combined with positive natural change (92) or compensating for negative natural change (75).

Conversely, for more than half of the regions (50 out of the 98 regions) in which population is projected to decline over the period 2008-2030, positive migration may not compensate for negative natural change.

Overall, as shown in Table 2, slightly more than half of the regions (152) are projected to be on a trajectory of positive population growth in 2030 (the three first groups). For these, the number of regions for which positive migration may compensate for the negative natural change (81) remains almost the same as in Table 1 (75).

However, fewer regions (58 compared to 92 in Table 1) may be on a trajectory of positive population growth with both components positive.

As a result of below replacement fertility, smaller cohorts of women reaching the reproductive age result in fewer births than in the past.

At the same time the number of deaths is projected to rise. Consequently, as Table 2 shows, over all six groups, 3 out of 4 regions (207) are projected to have more deaths than births (N-) in 2030, compared with less than 2 out of 4 (131) in 2008.

Widespread population ageing in almost all regions

The population profile is projected to become older in almost all regions. The combined effect of three factors – the existing population structure, fertility lower than replacement levels, and steadily rising numbers of people living longer – is likely to increase the median age in all but seven regions out of the 281.

These are the regions of Hamburg and Trier in Germany, Sterea Ellada and Peloponnisos in Greece, Wien in Austria, and West Midlands and North Eastern Scotland in the United Kingdom whose median age is projected to be between 36.2 and 42.1 years in 2030.

In the EU as a whole, the median age of the population was 40.4 in 2008. This is projected to increase to 45.4 in 2030 and almost one in four regions may have a median age of the population higher than 48 years.

As shown in Figure 3, in 2030, the 10 regions with the highest median age of the total projected population – above 52.8 years – are the eastern regions of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Brandenburg-Südwest, Brandenburg-Nordost, Thüringen, Dresden, Sachsen-Anhalt and Chemnitz in Germany, the coastal region of Principado de Asturias in north-west Spain and Liguria and Sardegna in Italy.

In contrast, the 10 regions with the lowest median age of the total projected population – below 38.8 years – include six capital city regions, namely the region of Île de France in France, Oslo og Akershus in Norway, the Southern and Eastern region in Ireland, the Région de Bruxelles-Capitale in Belgium, and Inner London and Outer London in the United Kingdom. It should be noted that in these capital city regions, positive population growth over the period 2008-2030 is expected to be due mainly to significant positive natural change.

The other four regions are the region of Greater Manchester, Northern Ireland, West Yorkshire and West Midlands in the United Kingdom. For the latter four regions, positive population growth over the period 2008-2030 may also be boosted mainly by natural increase.

In the coming decades, the high number of ageing baby boomers will swell the number of elderly persons. Consequently, the proportion of the regions’ population aged 65 or over is projected to increase considerably over the period 2008-2030.

In 2030, for the 281 regions, the proportion of the regions’ population aged 65 or over is projected to range between 10.4 % in the capital city region of Inner London in the United Kingdom and 37.3 % in the German region of Chemnitz on the border with the Czech Republic. In 2008, the range was between 9.1 % in the region of Flevoland – the region with the youngest population among all regions – and 26.8 % in the coastal region of Liguria in north-west Italy.

For the EU, the share of the total population aged 65 years or over is projected to increase to 23.5 % in 2030, from 17.1 % in 2008.

The old-age-dependency ratio is used as an indicator of the extent to which the older population (65 years or over) must be supported by the population of working age (conventionally 15-64 years old).

In 2030, the combination of the increased proportion of the projected population aged 65 or over and the decrease in the working age population for the vast majority of the regions may push the old age dependency ratio much higher than it was in 2008.

For the EU the old age dependency ratio in 2030 is expected to rise to 38.0 % from 25.4 % in 2008. This means that where, in 2008, 100 persons of working age supported 25 persons aged 65 or over, in 2030 they are projected to support 38 persons.

The regions’ old age dependency ratio is projected to be between 14.8 % and 70.2 % while in 2008 it ranged between 12.7 % and 43.3 %.

It is noted that in more than half of the 281 regions the old age dependency ratio is projected to increase by more than 13 percentage points over the period 2008-2030.

Data sources and availability

Coverage and regional classification

The 2008-based (EUROPOP2008) population projections at national level cover all the EU Member States and, as additionally requested, Norway and Switzerland. The regional EUROPOP2008 population projections are based on the latest Nomenclature of territorial units for statistics, NUTS/2006, in force from 1 January 2008.

NUTS/2006 subdivides the economic territory of the European Union into 271 regions at NUTS 2 level. For Norway and Switzerland, level 2 statistical regions are defined in a way which resembles the NUTS; seven regions for each country respectively. From the 271 NUTS level 2 regions, the current regional EUROPOP2008 population projections cover 267 regions; the four French overseas departments were not included in the regional population projections for France[1]. For six countries[2] NUTS level 2 coincides with the country.

This publication therefore refers in total to 281 regions: 267 NUTS level 2 regions and 14 statistical regions for Norway and Switzerland.

Methods and concepts

The projections have been compiled using the standard demographic cohort-component model. The country specific input parameters
(EUROPOP2008[3] at national level) that were used for the national population projections (age-specific fertility rates, age-specific death rates and migration) become region-specific for the respective regions. Additionally, the regional variation in demographic behaviour is quantified for the period 2008-2030.

For fertility and mortality the regional variation from the national overall fertility and mortality is expressed using the indirect standardization method (standardized ratio). First, the national fertility and mortality age- and sex-specific rates are applied to
the regional population, yielding a hypothetical number of events; then the observed number of regional events is divided by this hypothetical number to obtain a regional scaling factor. The regional scaling factors thus obtained represent an estimate of the extent to which regional fertility and mortality are above or below the national overall fertility and mortality.

For international migration, scaling factors were calculated as the ratio of the regional crude migration rate to the national crude migration rate. This indicator also equals the ratio of the share of the regional net migration in the total country net migration and of the regional population in the total population.

For fertility, the regional scaling factors have been relatively stable in recent[4] years. Regional differences from the respective national figure (at national level standardized ratio by definition equals to 1) are, for the vast majority of regions, in the range of ±20 % for the years that have been used to calculate the regional scaling factors. Similarly, for mortality, the regional scaling factors for males and females have also been relatively stable in recent years. On the whole, regional mortality differences have been smaller than the corresponding fertility differences. For the projections, therefore, the regional scaling factors have initially been set to the average value in recent years.

International migration has been estimated as a residual of the demographic balance and it therefore includes all imperfections which might affect the other components of the equation. In order to calculate the necessary information for Greece, Portugal and Ireland, the data on international migration for these countries were indirectly derived from the internal migration data from the last census. For France data for internal migration were available as an average for the period 2004-2008. This might have affected the results for the regions of these countries. The base year (starting year i.e. 2008) regional scaling factors have been set to the average over recent years where data were available. 

Consequently, assumptions have to be made concerning the degree to which the scaling factors will change over the projection period 2008-2030.

Specifically, the difference between the national and the regional scaling factor is assumed to decline by a quarter by 2030. For instance, where a region’s scaling factor for a component is 0.80 (meaning that it is 20% below the national level, which by definition equals to 1) this will be 0.85 at the end of the projection period.

The scaling factors for each year between the base year and the target year have been obtained by linear interpolation.

In addition to the above assumptions on fertility, mortality and international migration, assumptions were made about inter-regional migration.

The age and sex-specific rates of inter-regional migration were estimated by means of a model that uses as an input the inter-NUTS level 2 departures and arrivals by age, sex and region, and the total number of inter-NUTS level 2 migrations by region of origin and region of destination (origindestination migration matrix).

Assumptions were made about national residential mobility and the degree of attractiveness of the regions; therefore, assumptions were made about internal mobility as a whole (intra- plus interregional moves) plus the convergence/divergence of the regions in terms of attractiveness (full convergence would signify that net inter-regional migration is zero). In the current regional EUROPOP2008 population projections, internal mobility and regional differences are assumed not to change from the recent situation (calculated as an average of internal migration flows in recent years depending on countries’ data availability). The assumptions are quantified in the origindestination
migration matrix. Using a specific model, these assumptions on internal mobility and attractiveness are ultimately translated into interregional migration rates.

The age structures for fertility, mortality and international migration at regional level are assumed to be identical to those at national level,
while for inter-regional migration they are derived from the model and are region-specific.

The Eurostat regional population projections are fully consistent[5] with the Eurostat national projections, in terms of both the input (rates) and, with the application of specific consistency algorithms, the output (events) side. Therefore, the regional assumptions and results are linked to the assumptions and national results of EUROPOP2008.

Specifically, in order to ensure consistency between the national and the regional EUROPOP2008, the regional projection model
checks for each type of event (births, deaths, and international migration), whether the regional numbers add up to the national number from the national EUROPOP2008. If not, the regional numbers of events are proportionally adjusted in line with the national level. Consistency between regional and national scenarios is thus achieved both on the input side (equivalent rates) and on the output side (equivalent numbers of events).

The crude rate is the ratio of the number of events to the person-years lived, the latter being estimated assuming a constant annualized growth rate. Usually the crude rates are expressed as a number of events per 1000 inhabitants. Differing age structures in the regional populations have an influence on the comparison of crude rates.

The crude growth rate' is the crude birth rate minus the crude death rate plus the total net migration rate. The latter comprises both international and internal migration.

The median age of the population is the age at which exactly half of the population is older and half is younger.

Population refers to the 1 January population for the respective year.

The replacement level of fertility is considered in most developed countries, in the absence of migration, to be a total fertility rate of around 2.1 children per woman. In other words, this is the average number of children per woman by which women will replace themselves in a generation.

Context

Population projections are ‘what-if’ scenarios that aim to provide information about the likely future size and structure of the population. As with Eurostat population projections at national level, EUROPOP2008 regional population projections present one of several possible population change scenarios at NUTS level 2 based on assumptions for fertility, mortality and migration for the period 2008-2030.

The current regional scenario complements the demographic profile suggested by population projections produced by other statistical institutes or other international organisations, which draw alternative paths for the possible evolution of the population.

Further Eurostat information

Publications

Database

Population (populat)
Population projections (proj)
EUROPOP2010 - Convergence scenario, national level (proj_10c)

Source data for tables and graphs (Image files)

Dedicated section

Other information

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ Metropolitan France (FX): France (FR) without Guadeloupe, Martinique, Guyane and Réunion.
  2. ↑ EE, CY, MT, LV, LT and LU: Data refer to the EUROPOP2008 national population projections (see list of country codes).
  3. ↑ For information on the Eurostat 2008-based population projections at national level, see Statistics in focus "Ageing characterises the demographic perspectives of the European societies", 72/2008
  4. ↑ In general, the period 2003-2007 was used; however, the exact number of years may differ between components and countries, depending on data availability.
  5. ↑ The base year is 2008 and eventual revisions of the population for 2008 have not been incorporated in the current version of the regional population projections in order to keep them consistent with the EUROPOP2008 national population projections.
Retrieved from "http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/statistics_explained/index.php/Regional_population_projections"
In other languages
  • English
Create a book